OPINION POLLING FOR MARCH 2024

 

Across MARCH there were 37 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 24.5 (-0.6)
Lab  43.1% (-0.4) 
LDem 10.0% (+0.2) 
Grn 5.5% (-0.5) 

Rfm 11.6% (+1.5)

Oth 5.3% (-0.2)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 18-27% (median 22.5), Labour between 40-47% (median 43.5), Reform between 8-16% (median 12.0) and the LDems between 6-12% (median 9.0).  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 37 polls and on 1 occasion showed a 28% lead (People Polling, 07 Mar).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 14-28% (median 21.0).   This is now the second consecutive month  that Reform have out-polled the LDems, with the gap between the two growing and in one poll Reform were only 5% behind the Tories (YouGov, 26-27 Mar).

If a General Election were held on these March figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of:-  L453 (-6), C106 (-3), LD46 (+9), SNP20 (nc), PC4 (nc), G2 (nc), NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 256.    (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 260.). You will note that the polls have only showed minor changes to last month,  but in our constituency-based first-past-the-post system, just minor changes result in quite large shifts in the number of seats a party gains or loses.  (*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%

Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)

Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (103 polls)

Con 25.2%, Lab 42.8%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 10.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2024: 17.55%

Polling figures for March (37 polls)
Con 24.5%, Lab 43.1%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.5%, Rfm 11.6%, Oth 5.3%
Lab lead over Con March: 18.63% (+0.22)


President Putin won the elections in Russia by more than a landslide.   The war rumbles on in both Gaza & Ukraine.  Donald Trump's lead continues to grow in the polls as ordinary Americans believe he is being deliberately victimised by a corrupt, largely metropolitan middle class, establishment.

On the Home Front, the self-immolation of the Tories continues with media constanty awash with stories of plots to ditch Sunak straight after the May 'locals'.   Northern Ireland's First Minister - Michelle O'Neill (Sinn Fein) is facing accusations that she was connected to leading figures in the infamous 'Stakeknife' 'nutting squad'.   The question of residence regarding Labour's Angela Rayner contiinues with her changing her story for a third time and even becoming tearful and hostile when pressed in one interview.  Her spouse - former Labour MP (now de-selected) Sam Tarry is to take Labour to Court over allegations of vote-rigging by them to unseat him as the Labour MP.  sir Jeffrey Donaldson - head of the DUP,  quit amidst allegations of rape.   Labour abandoned it's 'better BREXIT deal' plans after the EU told them in no uncertain terms that the deal is not going to even be discussed let alone re-opened, and several member states - principally Spain, said the EU functions far smoother without the UK and it's constant obstructions now it has left and they are not wanted back.   And then there's the Rwanda Bill..........

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SCOTLAND

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 34.0% (-2.7)

SCon:  16.0% (+0.3)

SLab: 34.0% (+1.0)

SLD: 6.0% (-1.3)

Oth: 10.0% (+2.7)

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.0/28.0% (nc/+1.0)

SCon: 18.0/16.0% (nc/nc)

SLab: 31.0/29.0% (-2.0/nc)

SLD: 5.0/9.0% (-3.0/nc)

SGP: 3.0/9.0% (nc/nc)

Oth: 8.0/9.0% (+5.0/-1.0)

There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (nc), No: 46.0% (-1.0), DK: 11.0% (+1.0)

(Yes: 48.3%, No: 51.7%)

(General Election 2019)

SNP: 45.0%

SCon: 25.1%

SLab: 18.6%

SLDem: 9.5%

Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 49.0% (+4.0)
Con: 16.0% (-6.0)
PC: 10.0% (nc)
LDem: 5.0% (nc)
Rfm 15.0% (+2.0)
Grn: 5.0% (nc)

Oth 0.0% (nc)

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

Lab 36.0/32.0% (-1.0/-2.5)
Con 21.0/16.0% (-1.5/-2.5)
Plaid 21.0/18.0% (+2.5/-1.0)
LDem 3.0/7.0% (-2.5/-2.0)
Grn: 3.0/9.0% (-2.0/+3.0)
Rfm 11.0/11.0% (+5.5/+5.5)
AWA  3.0/6.0% (+2.0/+0.5)  
UKIP -/0.0%  (nc/-1.0)

Oth 5.0/1.0% (nc/-5.0)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 30% (+3.0),  No: 58% (-3.0), DK: 12% (nc)

(Yes: 34.1%, No: 65.9%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.    Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019)
Oth: 4.0% (na)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)

There were no Assembly polls released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 24.0% (-4.0)
APNI: 14.0% -2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (+2.0)
SDLP: 7.0% (+1.0)
TUV: 6.0% (+2.0)
Green:1.0% (-1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0)
S-PBP:1.0% (nc)
Oth: 8.0% (+2.0)

(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

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REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

The Coalition govrnment continues to wobble, exacerbated by the resignation of Leo Varadkar after his personally disastrous Constituency Referenda results.

There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 26.3% (-2.0)

FF: 17.0 (-0.7)

FG: 20.3% (+1.0)

GP: 4.0% (+0.3)

LP: 3.7% (-0.3)

SD: 6.3% (+1.0)

PBP-S: 2.3% (nc) 

AÚ: 3.7% (+1.7)

Oth/Ind: 16.4% (-1.0)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

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GERMANY

AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. 

Chancellor Scholz (SPD) remains at loggerheads with the Farmers Union, with more strikes planned and - more crucially being as he and his party are left wing, is becoming embroiled in major policy rows inside his party as he seeks to find a way to reform and reduce Germany's 
burgeoning social welfare bill.

AfD - 18.1% (-0.7)

CDU/CSU - 30.3% (-0.1)
FW - 2.5% (-0.3)

FDP - 4.7% (+0.3)

Grune - 13.3% (-0.1)

SPD - 15.6% (+0.6)

Die Linke - 3.1% (nc)
BSW - 6.0% (-0.4)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist' similar to Galloway's Workers Party of GB.)

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2024 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE GENERAL ELECTION

Portugal held a Snap legislative election on 10 March 2024 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 16th Legislature of Portugal.  All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were up for election.

The last elections were held in 2022 and were won with an outright majority by the PS socialists for their third time however they have been mired in scandal up to and including anti-corruption raids on the Prime Minister's own home.

Portugal uses a D'Hondt method of PR, based on 20 districts with each district allocated a number of seats based on it's population size. 4 of the seats represent overseas territories of Azores, Madeira etc

The election saw the right Democratic Alliance (PSD) (equivalent to UK's Tories) claim a narrow victory over the left Socialists (PS) (equivalent to UK's Labour).  The far-right party Chega! (CH) (more extreme than UK's BNP/NF) saw large gains nearly tripling its vote share and winning 48 seats in Parliament. It marked the best result for the party since its foundation in 2019.

(Plus 4 overseas MPs making 230 in total) 

A total of 20 seprate parties stood,  many in 'common ground' coalitions (for example the winning Democratic Alliance consisted of three parties working with each other.  Quite common in PR-type elections throughout europe).

The future looks highly unstable for Portugal as the election produced no clear winner and Chega! taking such a large shre in third place are being shunned by both the main parties, meaning every decision is going to require an immense amount of compromise between left & right.  In all probability the Portuguese will be heading back to the polls before the year is out.

IRISH CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM

The Republic of Ireland held two referenda on Friday March 8th (International Womens Day) to amend two parts of their Consittution (it has to be done by referendum).

The two proposals were (and all this appeared on the Ballot papers and accompanying notes):-

THE FAMILY AMENDMENT 

(white notes & ballot paper)

In Article 41.1.1° “The State recognises the Family as the natural primary and fundamental unit group of Society, and as a moral institution possessing inalienable and imprescriptible rights, antecedent and superior to all positive law.”

In Article 41.3.1° “The State pledges itself to guard with special care the institution of Marriage, on which the Family is founded, and to protect it against attack.”

The Proposal

The Constitution currently recognises the centrality of the family unit in society and protects the Family founded on marriage.

In this amendment there is one vote for two proposed changes. The Proposal involves the insertion of additional text to Article 41.1.1° and the deletion of text in Article 41.3.1°. These proposed changes are shown below:

Proposed to change Article 41.3.1° by deleting text shown with line through it:
“The State pledges itself to guard with special care the institution of Marriage, on which the Family is founded, and to protect it against attack.

Proposed to change Article 41.1.1° text in bold to:  Article 41.1.1° “The State recognises the Family, whether founded on marriage or on other durable relationships, as the natural primary and fundamental unit group of Society, and as a moral institution possessing inalienable and imprescriptible rights, antecedent and superior to all positive law.”

(There then follows an extremely long-winded and tiresome explanation of the legal impacts of a Yes vote or a No vote)

THE CARE AMENDMENT
(green notes & ballot paper)

Article 41.2.1° “In particular, the State recognises that by her life within the home, woman gives to the State a support without which the common good cannot be achieved.”

Article 41.2.2° “The State shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home.”

The Constitution currently, by Article 41.2, refers to the importance to the common good of the life of women within the home and that the State should endeavour to ensure that mothers should not have to go out to work to the neglect of their “duties in the home”.

The Proposal

In this amendment there is one vote for two proposed changes. The proposal involves deleting Article 41.2.1° and Article 41.2.2° and inserting a new Article 42B, as shown below:

“The State recognises that the provision of care, by members of a family to one another by reason of the bonds that exist among them, gives to Society a support without which the common good cannot be achieved, and shall strive to support such provision.”

(There then follows an extremely long-winded and tiresome explanation of the legal impacts of a Yes vote or a No Vote)

Ireland - like Wales, is a bi-lingual country so everything was repeated in Gaelic as well for good measure.

All the main parties supported YES/YES, which on the face of it seems fair enough and a 'nailed-on' dead cert - it is after all, when all said and done merely a tidying-up exercise to get the Constitution to reflect 21st Century reality. However the turn-out was shockingly poor for such a Consitutional matter, the campaigning by the main parties was lack-lustre and generally dreadful as they believed it was a foregone conclusion they'd win, and the wording of the questions and the explanations was way too complicated. 

3.5m people were registered to vote however most couldn't be bothered with it in the main because it was too difficult to understand or it didn't concern or affect them in their daily lives whether it changed or not.    The results were a shock overwhelming NO/NO with the politicians immediately all blaming each other and blaming the voters. 

Turn-out was 44.4% ave. (not everyone who voted, voted in both)
These were the worst and third worst turn-outs of any referenda in Irish history.

The Irish Labour Party surpassed themselves in summary and managed to use the word 'Government' five times in just one sentence -  "It was a very lacklustre Government campaign with very little evidence of canvassing from Government members, Government TDs and Senators and very few voices from Government on the airwaves supporting their call for Yes-Yes, and I think that is where Government failed" . Truly outstanding.   

Sinn Fein have already pledged - in that time-honoured Irish tradition, to run the referenda again until they get the result they want.


AFTERMATH

If you word something poorly  or make it way to complicated to be understood in mere seconds, over issues the parts of the electorate at large has very very deep reservations about, then the electorate will either not bother with it or vote against it.  But they certainly will not accept it.

The 'Family Amendment' was seen by a highly sceptical electorate as a move away from the heterosexual nuclear family towards the vacuous 'durable relationship', with the added worry that immigrants could use the change to bring in just about anybody, claiming there was some form of relationship between them.  Given the major social problems on-going at street-level in Ireland over immigration, this just added fuel to the fire.

The ‘The Care Amendment‘ was presented as rejecting the old-fashioned thinking of a woman’s place being in the home, but widely seen, again by a highly sceptical electorate (who are sick and tired of the Liberal-Left's obsession with Gender Politics and associated drivel and their attempts at forcing it's acceptance on a largely-hostile or disinterested people) as rejecting motherhood altogether, and opening the door to other interpretations of ‘woman’ and it's meaning, interpretation and usage.

This will place a significant strain on an already beleaguered Leo Varadkar-led Coalition government as this was his idea and he supported it and campaigned for it.

*****UPDATE****

20 March 2024.   Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach - Ireland's version of the Prime Minister, announced his resignation and will step down as soon as a replacement is announced.  Ireland is currently ruled by an extraordinarily fragile Coalition and unless the Coalition can come up with a candidate acceptable to all coalition members,  the end result may be an early General Election; something Sinn Fein and other parties are already demanding.

An early General Election would cause significant worry for whoever is in power in Westminster as currently Sinn Fein have a clear lead over the other two main parties and on current polling, would be able to cobble together a like-minded Coalition with a working majority.   Coupled wiith Sinn Fein now being 'top dog' in the north,  calls for a Border Poll from Sinn Fein in such a scenario would increase greatly.

OPINION POLLING FOR FEBRUARY 2024

Across FEBRUARY there were 36 Westminster polls released during the month at various times by all the major polling agencies.  Polling average was (figures in brackets show movement from last month):-

Con 25.1 (-1.0)
Lab  43.5% (+1.8) 
LDem 9.8% (-0.3) 
Grn 6.0% (+0.5) 

Rfm 10.1% (+0.8)

Oth 5.5% (-1.8)

(Oth consists of other parties, don't knows and will not vote)

The Tories swung between 21-29%, Labour between 40-48%, Reform between 7-14% and the LDems between 7-11%.  Labour managed to breach the magic 40% in all 36 polls and on 2 occasions showed a 26% lead (YouGov, 20-21Feb & 28-29 Feb).  Labour led in every poll with leads of between 11-26%.  Of note is that this is the first month that Reform have out-polled the LDems and in one poll were were just 6% behind the Tories (YouGov, 28-29 Feb).

If a General Election were held on these February figures and using the new boundaries, it would result in a Parliament of* :- C109 (-70), L459 (+59), LD37 (+9), SNP20 (+4), PC4 (+2), G2 (-), NI18, Speaker 1 with Labour having a majority of 190.    (although it would be slightly higher because Sinn Fein; included in the NI figure, will not take their seats, so around 195.). You will note that the polls have only showed minor changes to last month,  but in our constituency-based first-past-the-post system, just minor changes result in quite large shifts in the number of seats a party gains or loses.

(*Figures in brackets show movement from last months seat prediction).

Comparisons

General Election 12 Dec 2019: 

UK TOTAL - Con 43.6%, Lab 32.2%, LDem 11.6%, Grn 2.7%, Oth 9.9%

GB ONLY - Con 44.7%, Lab 33.0%, LDem 11.8%, Grn 2.8%, Oth 7.7%

UK lead Con over Lab: 11.4%

GB lead Con over Lab: 11.7%

Polling figures for 2021 (256 polls)

Con 40.3%, Lab 35.2%, LDem 8.4%, Grn 5.7%, Rfm 5.7%, Oth 4.7%

Con lead over Lab 2021: 5.1%

Polling figures for 2022 (330 polls)

Con 30.9%, Lab 42.4%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.4%, Rfm 3.7%, Oth 7.2%

Lab lead over Con 2022: 11.38%

Polling figures for 2023 (367 polls)

Con 27.1%, Lab 44.9%, LDem 10.4%, Grn 5.3%, Rfm 6.3%, Oth 6.0%
Lab lead over Con 2023: 15.14%

Polling figures for 2024 (66 polls)

Con 25.6%, Lab 42.6%, LDem 10.0%, Grn 5.8%, Rfm 9.7%, Oth 6.4%
Lab lead over Con 2024: 17.01%

Polling figures for February (36 polls)
Con 25.1%, Lab 43.5%, LDem 9.8%, Grn 6.0%, Rfm 10.1%, Oth 5.5%
Lab lead over Con February: 18.41% (-2.45)

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The war in Gaza rumbles on as does the war in Ukraine.  In the former the Israelis are griding their way to victory whilst in the latter, the month was dominated by the inevitable fall of Avdiivka; as both sides grind their way to the inevitable stalemate and the continued resistance in Congress to giving Ukraine more help.

On the 'home front', the political situation remained largely unchanged until right at the end when that old war-horse 'Gorgeous' George Galloway convincingly won the seat of Rochdale by a country mile, representing his Workers Party of Britain (WPB) - a party that is a strange kettle of fish to say the least.  Situated well to the left of Starmer's Labour whilst at the same time being more UK-nationalist than the BNP whilst at the same time some how being an internationalist.  It blends a mix of old-school traditional 'methodist' working class Labour values, hard left Trotskyism, trades unionism, disarmament, islamism etc etc, is anti-NATO, anti-EU and anti just about anything you can think of and keeps some very strange bed-fellows both at home and abroad.    Galloway - despite being a poisonous individual with equally poisonous friends,  is a ferocious campaigner, outstanding Parliamentarian, extraordinarily eloquent in speeches and is best remembered by many for his total contempt and dismissal of the US Congressional Committee to their faces live on US TV for an hour as they attempted to question him over Iraq and oil sales and they remarked to the media after the experience that nobody had ever spoken to them in such a disresepctful and aggressive manner ever before. They didn't invite him back.  An extremist, but never the less it will be good to see him in Parliament again as you can guarentee he will give anyone and everyone a very very public roasting whenever and wherever he can and already he has belittled both Starmer and Sunak on TV.  I for one can't wait for his introductory speech - Sunak & Starmer will be firmly put in their place of that I have no doubts.

Reform are now above the LDems in the averages for the month and are less than half of one percent below them in the averages for the year.

Allegations persist that Labour used undue leverage on the Speaker to break with acceoted convention and allow an Opposition Amendment to an Opposition Day Motion regarding Gaza.  The impact was in effect to allow Labour to hi-jack the SNPs Motion, thereby preventing the SNP from even voting on their own Motion while at the same time preventing Labour from disintegrating into a very public civil war.  This led to a walk-out by the SNP & the Tories, bitter recriminations levelled at a very shame-faced Speaker and the man left clinging to his job by his fingernails with his credibility in tatters.

March will see the usual speculation over the Budget.  The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has already made Chancellor Hunt remove and change many parts as 'unaffordable' (People don't seem to realise that the government can't set it's own budget anymore as it used to be able to - it has to be approved by the OBR hence why Labour's promised spending should they win the next election has been significantly scaled-back and a whole host of plans cancelled - although the government can change the rules the OBR uses if it wishes.).  There is even speculation in the 'broadsheets' now that Sunak will call a quick 'kamikazi' general election very quickly after the budget.

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SCOTLAND

There were three Westminster polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SNP: 36.7% (+2.0)

SCon:  15.7% (-0.6)

SLab: 33.0% (-0.2)

SLD: 7.3% (-0.7)

Oth: 7.3% (-0.7)

There was one Holyrood poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling) (constituency/list):-

SNP: 35.0/27.0% (-1.5/-0.5)

SCon: 18.0/16.0% (+2.0/-2.0)

SLab: 33.0/29.0% (+1.5/-0.5)

SLD: 8.0/9.0% (+0.5/+0.5)

SGP: 3.0/9.0% (-1.0/-1.0)

Oth: 3.0/10.0% (-1.5/+3.5)

There were four IndyRef polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 43.0% (-3.3), No: 47.0% (+0.2), DK: 10.0% (+3.1)

(Yes: 47.8%, No: 52.2%)

(General Election 2019)

SNP: 45.0%

SCon: 25.1%

SLab: 18.6%

SLDem: 9.5%

Oth: 1.8%).

(Holyrood Election 2022)

SNP: 47.7/40.3%

SCon: 21.9/23.5%

SLab: 21.6/17.9%

SLD: 6.9/5.1%

SGP: 1.3/8.1%

Oth: 0.6/3.4%).

(IndyRef 2014)

Yes: 44.7%

No: 55.3%

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WALES

There was one Westminster poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Lab: 45.0% (-3.0)
Con: 22.0% (+2.0)
PC: 10.0% (-nc)
LDem: 5.0% (+1.0)
Rfm 13.0% (+1.0)
Grn: 5.0% (+1.0)

Oth 0.0% (-2.0)

There were no Senedd opinion polls released during the month. Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

Lab 37.0/34.5% (-6.0/+3.5)
Con 22.5/18.5% (+1.5/-0.5)
Plaid 18.5/19.0% (-1.5/-3.0)
LDem 5.5/9.0% (-0.5/-1.0)
Grn: 5.0/6.0% (+2.0/nc)
Rfm 5.5/5.5% (-3.5/-4.5)
AWA  1.0/5.5% (-0.6/+0.5)  
UKIP -/1.0%  (nc/+1.0)

Oth 5.0/6.0% (+1.0/+1.0)

There was one IndyRef poll released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

Yes: 27% (-3.0),  No: 61% (+2.0), DK: 12% (+1.0)

(Yes: 30.7%, No: 69.3%)

(General Election 2019)
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 36.1%
PC: 9.9%
LDem: 6.0%
Grn: 1.0%
BXP: 5.4%
Oth: 0.7%

(Senedd Election 2021)
Lab: 39.9/36.2%

Con: 26.1/25.1%

Plaid: 20.3/20.7%

LDem: 4.9/4.3%

Grn: 1.6/3.6%

Ref: 1.5/1.1%

AWA*: 1.5/3.7%

UKIP: 0.8/1.6%

Propel: 0.6/0.9%

(*AWA - Abolish Welsh Assembly)

(The Senedd voting system will change for the next Senedd election in 2026.  Currently it uses a hybrid system of first past the post Constituencies mirroring Westminster constituencies and PR-based regional top-up lists.   The proposal is that this is scrapped, the Senedd enlarged from the current 60 seats to 96 and the voting system replaced by a  PR-based party closed list system, centred on 16 'super-constituencies' each consisting of 6 seats.  Voters will only be allowed to vote for a party - not a named candidate and a D'Hondt-type method used to allocate seats within each super-constituency, with the parties then allocating people to the seats they win, from lists not made public.   Party appointed delegates as opposed to people appointed representatives.  The slow death of democracy and directly elected accountable representatives. Even more bizarrely, the method now being 'pushed by Labour & Plaid is actually forbidden within the EU so if they ever got their dream of re-joining, they'd have to scrap it. Not only that, it will require around 14% of the vote in a super-constituency to win just one seat and will be even less representative than the AMS system they currently use.  The only countries on earth that use a similar system are Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ecuador, Moldova, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey & Uruguay.   Proportionally,  the increase to 96, would equate to if replicated at  Westminster level, Parliament having over 2000 MPs.   Wales is already politician-heavy and civil servant-heavy in comparison to the other 3 Home Nations and this will only increase that. You really couldn't make it up.)

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NORTHERN IRELAND

Things are now far more settled politically in Northern Ireland and the Assembly is now sitting again and a devolved government is in place.

There were no Westminster polls released during the month.    Last polling figures are repeated just for reference (figures in brackets show movement from previous polling):-

SF: 31.0% (+8.0)
DUP: 25.0% (-6.0)
APNI: 15.0% (-2.0)
UUP: 11.0% (-1.0)
SDLP: 9.0% (-6.0)
TUV: 5.0% (did not stand in 2019)
Oth: 4.0% (na)

(Unionist 41%, Nationalist 40%)

There was one Assembly poll released during the month.  (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 31.0% (nc)
DUP: 24.0% (-4.0)
APNI: 14.0% -2.0)
UUP: 10.0% (+2.0)
SDLP: 7.0% (+1.0)
TUV: 6.0% (+2.0)
Green:1.0% (-1.0)
AÚ: 2.0% (+1.0)
S-PBP:1.0% (nc)
Oth: 8.0% (+2.0)

(Unionist 40%, Nationalist 40%)

(General Election 2019)
SF: 22.8%
DUP: 30.6%
APNI: 16.8%
UUP: 11.7%
SDLP: 14.9%
Oth: 3.2%
(Unionist 42.3%, Nationalist 37.7%)

(Assembly Election 2022)
SF: 29.0%
DUP: 21.3%
APNI: 13.5%
UUP: 11.2%
SDLP: 9.1%, 
TUV: 7.6%
S-PBP: 1.2%
Oth 7.1%

(Unionist 40.1%, Nationalist 38.1%)

(Unionist= DUP, UUP, TUV, PUP)
(Nationalist= SF, SDLP, Green, AU, S-PBP, IRSP, WP)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

REPUBLIC OF IRELAND

I include the Republic because they are the only foreign country with a common land border with the UK and also share a common heritage and language. In addition, what goes on in Dublin also has an effect in Belfast and in London and vice-versa all round.

The coalition government in Dublin is somewhat beleagured at the moment with asylum seekers, the faltering recovery and several other factors causing them headaches.  Luckily for them, the only viable opposition has no idea what to do either.

There were three polls released during the month. (figures in brackets show movement from last polling):-

SF: 28.3% (+0.8)

FF: 17.7 (+0.7)

FG: 19.3% (-0.7)

GP: 3.7% (+0.2)

LP: 4.0% (+0.5)

SD: 5.3% (-0.2)

PBP-S: 2.3% (-0.7) 

AÚ: 2.0% (-1.0)

Oth/Ind: 17.4% (+0.4)

(General Election 2020)

SF: 24.5%

FF: 22.2%

FG: 20.9%

GP: 7.1%

LP: 4.4%

SD: 2.9%

S-PBP: 2.6%

AÚ: 1.9%

Oth/Ind: 13.5%

(SF=Sinn Fein, FF=Fianna Fáil, FG=Fine Gael, GP=Greens, LP=Labour,

SD=Social Democrats, PBP-S= People Before Profit–Solidarity, AU=Aontú)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GERMANY

AfD continues to show a major presence and as a result, the established 'Big 2' - CDU/CSU & SPD (Tories & Labour) are changing their positions on major issues such as economics, illegal immigration & the EU to a more populist-right position. 

Chancellor Scholz (SPD) is now at loggerheads with the Farmers Union, with more strikes planned.

AfD - 18.8% (-2.6)

CDU/CSU - 30.4% (-0.1)
FW - 2.8% (-0.2)

FDP - 4.4% (-0.2)

Grune - 13.4% (+0.4)

SPD - 15.0% (+0.6)

Die Linke - 3.1% (-0.5)
BSW - 6.4% (-0.1)

(In UK terms and crudely put,  AfD are similar to BNP/UKIP, CDU/CSU is a coalition of Cameron-style Tory-lite & Thatcherite-style tories, FW are a centrist, marginally centre-right party similar to Tory 'wets',  FDP are similar to our old Liberal Party (ie economically right of centre, socially left of centre), Grune are Greens (although German Greens tend to be more realistic economically than the UK version), SPD are similar to Blair's New Labour, Die Linke a more left-wing version of our Corbynism and BSW a strange party described as 'populist-socialist' similar to Galloway's Workers Party of GB.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

USA

The month wouldn't be complete without mentioning............................'The Donald'.   Trump is seemingly bullet-proof.  The more misery the 'swamp' attempts to pin on him,  the higher he goes in the polls.   He has won the first six Republican Primaries at a canter.  His only real rival - Nikki Haley, even lost her home state. As we go to print, even though strictly speaking it's really for next month's round-up, Haley won Washington DC but that will be the pinnacle of her campaign I suspect and 'Super-Tuesday' on March 5th, where Republicans in 15 states & one territory will select their choice of candidate will probably see her withdraw uness she pulls of a miracle.  At that point, if she has poor results, her spoonsors and backers will abandon her and her campaign will run out of money. 

Biden for his part continues to sink lower amongst his own supporters.  

I show this graphic of polling in six key states.

A massive poll conducted in every state suggests that if the Presidential election were to be held tomorrow,  the Electoral College (the system the USA uses) will be 224-314 in Trump's favour.  A landslide.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~